Bayes' theorem You are doctor examining a middle-aged man who complains of lower back pain. You know that 25% of men in the age group of your patient suffer from lower back pain. There are various causes of lower back pain; one of them is chronic inflammation of the kidneys. This is not a very common disease: it affects only 4% of men in the age group that you are considering. Among those who suffer from chronic inflammation of the kidneys, 85% complain of lower back pain. What is the probability that your patient has chronic inflammation of the kidneys? Sol below
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